Cybin Inc. (Helus Pharma) (HELP) Deep Research Report: Overvalued vs. Opportunity in Psychedelic Biotech for 2026–2027

Cybin Inc., now doing business as Helus Pharma and trading under the HELP ticker on Nasdaq, sits at the speculative edge of biotech: late‑stage psychedelic‑derived drugs, big addressable markets, zero revenue, and a sizable cash pile that burns a little faster every quarter. As of January 12, 2026, shares trade at $7.38, implying a roughly $413 million market cap and net cash of about $225 million after debenture repayment, with quarterly operating cash burn around $34.5 million and no commercial products in sight yet.

From our perspective, that setup is less of a classic “value investment” and more of a time‑limited, high‑beta option on a couple of pivotal trial outcomes. According to the company’s own updates, Helus is advancing CYB003, a deuterated psilocin analog for adjunctive major depressive disorder (MDD), through its Phase 3 PARADIGM program, while CYB004, a deuterated DMT analog, is in Phase 2 for generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) with a 36‑patient study fully enrolled by late 2025 Helus IR, Sep 2025, CYB004 Phase 2 enrollment. Both programs are backed by an expanding patent estate and, in CYB003’s case, FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation and impressive Phase 2 durability signals.

Market sentiment is broadly bullish and crowded: clustered Buy ratings, a $175 million raise from blue‑chip biotech funds, and a narrative that leans heavily on “runway into 2027” and “late‑stage psychedelic platform” BeyondSPX, Nov 2025, $175m offering. Our view is more cautious. When we probability‑weight reasonable scenarios for clinical outcomes, cash burn, and dilution, we see a risk/reward that favors nimble, event‑driven traders more than long‑only investors looking for asymmetry over the next 6–12 months.

In what follows, we unpack how Helus makes (or rather, will make) money, what the current runway and burn imply, and how investors should think about CYB003/CYB004 catalysts, dilution risk, and position sizing in 2026–2027.

What does Helus Pharma actually do today?

Helus is a clinical‑stage neuropsychiatry company focused on “next‑generation psychedelic‑derived therapeutics” for mood and anxiety disorders. The business is built around two lead assets:

• CYB003 – a deuterated psilocin analog for adjunctive treatment of MDD
• CYB004 – a deuterated DMT analog for GAD, delivered intramuscularly

The company is incorporated in Canada but runs operations across Canada, the U.S., the UK, the Netherlands, and Ireland Helus IR, Jun 2025, FY25 results. The goal is not microdosing or unstructured “psychedelic experiences.” Instead, the drug regimens are designed as intermittent, supervised dosing sessions that fit within mainstream mental‑health care workflows and reimbursement systems.

According to Helus’ own description, the company has spent the last few years moving from early research to late‑stage execution:

• Launching the PARADIGM Phase 3 program for CYB003 (trials APPROACH and EMBRACE, plus the EXTEND long‑term extension)
• Building out roughly 100+ global trial sites and ~550 planned patients for PARADIGM Helus IR, Aug 2025, EMBRACE approval
• Completing enrollment of 36 patients in CYB004’s Phase 2 GAD study
• Expanding IP to more than 80 patents around CYB003 and 90+ around CYB004, with exclusivity stretching into 2040–2041 Helus IR, May 2025, CYB003 patents Helus IR, Jun 2025, CYB004 patents
• Setting up manufacturing and data infrastructure partnerships (Thermo Fisher, Osmind) in anticipation of commercialization Helus IR, Jun 2025, FY25 results

That progress comes at a cost. Cash‑based operating expenses climbed from roughly C$65 million in FY24 to C$100 million in FY25 as trials scaled Helus IR, Jun 2025, FY25 results. To fund that, Helus issued equity repeatedly, including a $175 million registered direct offering in October 2025 Helus IR, Oct 2025, $175m offering and an at‑the‑market program of up to $100 million TipRanks, Feb 2025, Q3 FY25 results.

The practical takeaway for investors: there is no recurring revenue, no proven commercial model, and no asset value outside of IP and clinical programs. This is a classic pre‑revenue biotech with a binary path: win with one or both lead programs, or eventually recapitalize at lower prices.

How will Helus eventually make money?

Right now, Helus makes no money from product sales. Its income statement is dominated by R&D and corporate overhead. For the quarter ended September 30, 2025, Helus reported:

• Operating income: -$28.9 million
• Net income: -$33.7 million (EPS -1.39)
• Operating cash flow: -$34.5 million
• Free cash flow: -$34.9 million

on total assets of $181.2 million and equity of $139.0 million FMP data; Helus IR, Nov 2025, Q2 FY26 results.

Management’s intended long‑term model is familiar pharma:

• Develop proprietary treatments (CYB003, CYB004)
• Secure regulatory approval with strong labels and IP protection
• Sell drug regimens (and potentially supporting digital tools or services) to psychiatrists, specialty centers, and health systems
• Rely on payers to reimburse at levels that reflect the drugs’ clinical value and durability

The company points to an addressable MDD population of more than 300 million patients globally Helus IR, Feb 2025, Q3 FY25 results, so revenue, if it materializes, will be highly diversified by patient but concentrated in terms of payers and systems.

The catch is that the economics of psychedelic‑assisted therapies are still unproven at scale. Psychiatrists must be comfortable administering such treatments, clinics need infrastructure for supervised sessions, and payers must accept a high‑touch, episodic intervention in exchange for durable benefit. That introduces three layers of uncertainty even after regulatory approval:

1. Pricing power: How much will payers actually reimburse?

2. Adoption curve: How quickly will clinics and prescribers integrate these sessions into practice?

3. Margin profile: Once commercialization begins, can Helus keep selling, distribution, and support costs in line with pricing?

For now, none of these questions has an empirical answer. The company is still in the “all cost, no revenue” zone.

Is HELP stock a buy in 2026 at current prices?

Our judgment call as of mid‑January 2026 is POTENTIAL SELL with moderate conviction (3.5/5). That does not mean we see zero upside; it means we don’t like the balance between what the stock already prices in and the risks that shareholders are underwriting.

We frame Helus’ valuation across three broad scenarios:

Base case (45% probability):

• Implied value: $7.00 per share
• CYB004 Phase 2 GAD data are “okay but not amazing” – mixed yet usable
• PARADIGM (CYB003) enrollment roughly tracks guidance
• Quarterly cash burn stabilizes in the $30–35 million range

Bear case (35% probability):

• Implied value: $4.00 per share
• CYB004 disappoints (weak efficacy or safety issues)
• PARADIGM costs drive burn above $40 million per quarter
• Management turns to aggressive equity issuance before mid‑2027, diluting heavily

Bull case (20% probability):

• Implied value: $11.00 per share
• CYB004 shows compelling efficacy and safety
• PARADIGM enrollment is smooth, burn disciplined
• Existing cash carries Helus into late‑2027 with no new dilution

Blend those together and you get an expected value around the current share price. In our view, that’s not enough to justify new sizey positions when:

• The company has no revenue or asset backing beyond clinical IP.
• Quarterly burn is rising as trials ramp.
• Governance allows for substantial dilution without robust U.S.‑style shareholder votes.

We think the stock becomes more interesting around $5.50, which we mark as an “attractive entry” level. At that price, the balance sheet provides better margin of safety relative to binary trial risk. Conversely, we’d look to trim above $10.00 unless CYB004 data and cash discipline materially exceed expectations.

In other words, we see HELPs’s risk/reward as:

• Suitable for traders playing the CYB004 Phase 2 readout and the ongoing rebrand/uplisting narrative.
• Less compelling for 6+ month investors seeking a strong skew between upside and downside at today’s quote.

How strong is Helus’ balance sheet and margin of safety?

At first glance, the balance sheet looks like a big selling point. Pro forma for the October 2025 offering, Helus had about $248 million in cash as of September 30, 2025, before roughly $22.8 million of debenture repayment. That leaves net cash of about $225 million and net debt around -$135 million on FMP’s numbers Fintool, Nov 2025, CYBN research Helus IR, Nov 2025, Q2 FY26 results.

At a quarterly operating cash burn of ~$34.5 million, that translates into roughly 6–7 quarters of runway – say, out to mid‑2027 if burn doesn’t accelerate materially. That’s enough time to:

• Deliver CYB004 Phase 2 readout (guided for Q1 2026)
• Progress EMBRACE enrollment and PARADIGM more broadly
• Potentially deliver APPROACH Phase 3 topline in Q4 2026 Helus IR, Nov 2025, Q2 FY26 results

But we see three caveats that shrink the margin of safety:

1. Burn is trending up, not down.

Cash‑based operating expenses jumped from $18.2 million to $28.5 million year over year in the September quarters as Phase 3 activity ramped Helus IR, Nov 2025, Q2 FY26 results. If burn drifts north of $40 million per quarter for a couple of quarters, that runway compresses quickly.

2. There’s no asset backstop if trials disappoint.

If CYB004 fails and CYB003’s Phase 3 data underwhelm or slip significantly, the residual value of earlier‑stage programs funded with remaining cash is likely far below today’s equity value. In a downside scenario, the cash balance is used primarily to reorganize or pivot, not to protect current shareholders.

3. Governance allows for flexible, potentially dilutive financing.

As a Canadian foreign private issuer filing on Form 40‑F, Helus can follow Ontario and Cboe Canada rules on shareholder approvals. NYSE American (and now Nasdaq via home‑country practices) explicitly permits such issuers to seek waivers from U.S. shareholder‑approval rules for large private placements 40-F (2025). That means management has significant room to prioritize “keep the trials moving” over “protect per‑share value” if markets tighten or trial costs overshoot.

We treat the stock as a time‑boxed call option on CYB003/CYB004, funded by that net‑cash cushion. The margin of safety is almost entirely balance‑sheet driven, and even that cushion is conditional on disciplined burn and on management not pre‑emptively using the ATM in ways that surprise shareholders.

For portfolio construction, our bias is to keep positions modest and to size them as you would other binary biotech situations, not as you would a cash‑generating compounder.

How important is CYB004’s Phase 2 readout?

CYB004 is the smaller program, but in our view, its Phase 2 data are hugely important for the equity story in 2026.

The key facts:

• CYB004‑002 is a randomized Phase 2 trial in GAD with 36 patients enrolled, evaluating efficacy and safety over six weeks versus a sub‑therapeutic control Helus IR, Sep 2025, CYB004 Phase 2 enrollment.
• Helus has guided to topline data in Q1 2026.
• The primary signal to watch is improvement on HAM‑A (Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale), plus safety/tolerability suitable for chronic anxiety treatment.

The market and analysts are already treating this readout as a near‑term catalyst that helps justify current price targets Defense World, Nov 2025, target cuts. We think of the outcomes in three broad buckets:

1. Strong, clean efficacy and safety.

• Confirms a viable second asset beyond CYB003
• Strengthens the multi‑asset, platform narrative
• Justifies continued investment and raises the ceiling on partnership or M&A value

2. Mixed or noisy data.

• Statistically borderline or clinically modest benefit
• Safety/tolerability questions that complicate chronic use
• Valuation probably drifts toward a “CYB003‑only plus optionality” framework

3. Clear disappointment.

• No meaningful efficacy versus control, or unacceptable safety profile
• CYB004 likely de‑prioritized or redesigned
• Market focuses almost entirely on CYB003, with the stock re‑rated as a single‑asset story

Because the Phase 2 trial is small (36 patients), there is a non‑trivial risk of an ambiguous signal. That’s not fatal to the program, but it reduces clarity and makes incremental capital allocation more questionable.

We also pay close attention to timing. If topline slips materially beyond Q1 2026, or if guidance drifts without strong rationale, we lower our confidence in execution and increase the perceived risk that trial management is more challenging than it appears.

For investors holding into the readout, we’d emphasize:

• Know your exit strategy before the data.
• Decide whether you are playing for a quick post‑data move or for a multi‑year CYB003 story.
• Size accordingly; avoid letting a binary event dominate portfolio risk.

Will CYB003 and PARADIGM deliver long‑term growth?

The real long‑term value driver here is CYB003. It’s in a registrational Phase 3 program (PARADIGM) for adjunctive MDD, backed by:

• FDA Breakthrough Therapy Designation
• Phase 2 data showing 71% remission and 100% responder rates at 12 months after two 16 mg doses in an extension study Helus IR, Jun 2025, FY25 results
• U.S. patents and IP likely protecting the franchise to 2041 Helus IR, May 2025, CYB003 patents

The PARADIGM program includes:

• APPROACH – a pivotal Phase 3 trial expected to deliver topline in Q4 2026 if enrollment and operations stay on track Helus IR, Nov 2025, Q2 FY26 results
• EMBRACE – a multinational pivotal study approved across Australia, parts of the EU, and the UK, with about 60 sites targeted Helus IR, Aug 2025, EMBRACE approval
• EXTEND – a long‑term extension intended to reinforce 12‑month durability in a larger, more representative population Helus IR, Feb 2025, Q3 FY25 results

If APPROACH and EMBRACE replicate or come close to the Phase 2 efficacy and durability signals, the path to an NDA filing and potential approval becomes realistic. In that success scenario, CYB003 would be:

• A differentiated, durable adjunctive MDD therapy targeting a massive unmet need.
• Supported by BTD and strong IP, offering a clear route to premium pricing.
• Strategically attractive for partnerships or even acquisition, especially given Big Pharma’s recent validation of 5‑HT2A‑directed depression drugs via deals like AbbVie’s up‑to‑$1.2 billion transaction for bretisilocin Reuters, Aug 2025, AbbVie deal.

But we should be realistic about failure modes:

• Phase 3 data can regress toward placebo relative to spectacular Phase 2 results.
• Safety signals in broader, more diverse populations may not match small, tightly run studies.
• Payers and regulators may prefer non‑hallucinogenic or ultra‑short‑duration alternatives, especially if agents like bretisilocin show comparable efficacy with less logistical burden.

In that context, the CYB003 moat is conditional on successful execution and on the competitive landscape. The patents and BTD confer potential advantage; they don’t guarantee economic rents on their own.

Our roadmap lens:

• Near term (0–6 months): CYB004 Phase 2 data, early trading under HELP on Nasdaq, Q3 FY26 burn trends.
• Medium term (6–18 months): EMBRACE enrollment progress; EXTEND durability data; maintenance of at least six quarters of cash runway without highly dilutive deals Helus IR, Nov 2025, Q2 FY26 results.
• Long term (2–5 years): APPROACH topline, NDA submission, first commercial revenues, and proof that psychedelic‑assisted MDD treatment can generate attractive free cash flow.

From our vantage point, CYB003 absolutely can support long‑term growth if Phase 3 hits and the payer/regulatory environment cooperates. The problem for equity holders today is the distance between here and there, and the amount of capital that must be burned along the way.

How should investors think about dilution and governance risk?

One of the most underappreciated parts of the Helus story is its capital structure and governance.

A few key points:

• Between March 31, 2022 and March 31, 2025, the share count changed from 164.6 million to 21.6 million, reflecting reverse splits and significant equity issuance 40-F/A (2022) 40-F (2025).
• The company has tapped both an ATM program (up to $100 million) and a $175 million registered direct offering backed by specialist funds Helus IR, Oct 2025, $175m offering.
• As a Canadian foreign private issuer, Helus is exempt from many U.S. proxy rules and can follow home‑country practices on issues like quorum, board composition, and shareholder‑approval thresholds 40-F (2025).

What this means in practice:

• Management has shown it can raise significant equity when the window is open, but at the cost of substantial dilution.
• NYSE American and now Nasdaq allow Helus to rely on Ontario and Cboe Canada standards, so large discounted private placements might not require U.S. shareholder votes.
• There is no history yet of capital returns or conservative balance‑sheet management; almost every dollar raised has gone into R&D and G&A to advance CYB003/CYB004.

We consider a large, deeply discounted equity raise (>25% of pre‑deal share count) within the next 12 months, especially if justified under “funded into 2027” guidance, as a potential thesis breaker. It would signal that burn is outpacing expectations or that management is prioritizing program optionality over existing shareholder protection.

For investors monitoring this over time, we recommend:

• Tracking quarterly operating cash flow and free cash flow from IR releases and filings. Burns above $40 million for two consecutive quarters without clear value‑creating additions are a red flag Helus IR, Nov 2025, Q2 FY26 results.
• Watching ATM usage closely via share‑count changes and disclosures. Early or aggressive use while runway still looks comfortable suggests estimates are slipping.
• Reading the company’s 40‑F and 6‑K filings, which outline governance flexibilities and any material changes 40-F (2025) 6-K (2026).

This is exactly the kind of monitoring task where AI‑assisted workflows shine: parsing dense filings and flagging unusual capital moves fast. If you want a broader framework for doing that, you can Read our AI-powered value investing guide.

How we’d approach HELP in a portfolio

Putting it all together, here’s how we, as the DeepValue team, think about Helus/HELP as of January 2026:

Thesis: At $7.38, the stock already embeds a lot of good news: successful CYB004 Phase 2, smooth PARADIGM execution, and non‑punitive dilution, all in a company with no revenue and rising burn. Upside from “in‑line” data is limited; downside from disappointment is material.

Time horizon: Best suited for 6–12 month event‑driven positions around CYB004 readout and ongoing CYB003 progress. It’s not a sleep‑well‑at‑night compounder at this stage.

Sizing: Treat as a high‑volatility, binary biotech exposure. We’d avoid outsized allocations and would be comfortable with low single‑digit portfolio weights at most.

Entry levels:

• More attractive near $5.50, where the balance sheet and skew improve.
• Reasonable to trim or re‑evaluate exposure above $10.00 absent meaningfully superior data or better‑than‑expected financing discipline.

Monitoring checklist:

• CYB004 Phase 2 timing and quality of data
• PARADIGM upgrades/downgrades to timelines and enrollment
• Quarterly burn, runway, and any equity issuance (ATM or otherwise)
• Regulatory and payer shifts around psychedelic‑assisted treatments, especially if guidance starts to favor non‑hallucinogenic agents Helus IR, 2025 regulatory update Reuters, Aug 2025, AbbVie deal

For investors with the appetite and discipline to trade around catalysts, HELPs’s story can be interesting – especially if volatility offers a better entry point. For more conservative, long‑term holders who prefer clear downside protection and visible paths to cash flow, we think there are cleaner opportunities elsewhere in the market right now.

Sources

• Helus IR, Jun 2025 – Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results and Business Highlights
• Helus IR, Feb 2025 – Q3 Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results and Business Highlights
• Helus IR, Aug 2025 – Australian Approval for EMBRACE Phase 3 Study
• Helus IR, Sep 2025 – CYB004 Phase 2 GAD Study Enrollment Complete
• Helus IR, May 2025 – Additional U.S. Patent Supporting CYB003
• Helus IR, Jun 2025 – Additional U.S. Patent Supporting CYB004
• Helus IR, Nov 2025 – Q2 Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results and Business Highlights
• Helus IR, Oct 2025 – Closing of $175 Million Registered Direct Offering
• Helus IR, Dec 2025 – Transfer of U.S. Listing to Nasdaq
• Helus IR, 2025 – Corporate Update and Regulatory Signals for Psychedelic Therapeutics
• Fintool, Nov 2025 – CYBN Company Research Profile
• FMP – Financial Modeling Prep data for Cybin/Helus
• BeyondSPX, Nov 2025 – Cybin Raises $175 Million in Registered Direct Offering
• FiercePharma, Dec 2025 – Cybin Rebrands to Helus, Uplists to Nasdaq
• ETF Daily News, Aug 2025 – Analyst EPS Estimate Boosts
• Defense World, Nov 2025 – Canaccord Lowers Expectations but Maintains Buy
• Nasdaq, Mar 2025 – Guggenheim Initiates Coverage with Buy Recommendation
• Nasdaq, Dec 2025 – Guggenheim Maintains Cybin Buy Recommendation
• TipRanks, Aug 2025 – Asset Growth and Underperform Rating
• TipRanks, Feb 2025 – Q3 2025 Financial Results and ATM Program
• Reuters, Aug 2025 – AbbVie’s $1.2 Billion Psychedelic‑Based Depression Drug Deal
• 40-F (2025) – Cybin 2025 Annual Report on Form 40-F
• 40-F/A (2022) – Cybin 2022 Amended Annual Report on Form 40-F/A
• 6-K (2026) – Cybin 6-K Regarding Nasdaq Uplisting and Rebrand
• 6-K/A (2024) – Cybin Amended 6-K Filing