Centrus Energy (LEU) Deep Research Report: De-Risking the HALEU Story Before Chasing the Hype in 2026

Centrus Energy’s stock has become a poster child for the “U.S. nuclear fuel bottleneck” trade. LEU sits at the intersection of U.S. policy to cut dependence on Russian enriched uranium, growing interest in advanced reactors, and a still-limited Western enrichment base. That cocktail has drawn in a lot of momentum money and uranium tourists.

Our read: at roughly $197, the stock is no longer trading on whether Centrus can matter in the new fuel cycle. It’s trading on the assumption that its contracts, government “selection” and expansion plans will swiftly morph into funded, schedule-backed cash flows.

From our deep review of Centrus filings and recent disclosures, including the 10-K (2026) and management’s recent commentary, we’re not there yet. We rate the stock a WAIT, not a buy, with an attractive entry closer to $160 and a trim zone above $240.

The core of our stance is simple: the story is strategic, the balance sheet is strong, but execution and contract conversion still lag the price. Two hard milestones now dominate the 6–12 month outlook:

• Turning a “selected” $900M HALEU production award into a definitized, obligated contract with dates and dollars.
• Issuing a 2026 “certified-for-construction” package for the Piketon enrichment expansion under Fluor’s EPC scope.

Until we see progress here, we’d rather stay patient than pay up for narrative.

If you’re looking at LEU or similar complex, policy-heavy names, this is exactly where an AI research stack can save you days of work. You can use DeepValue to ingest 10-Ks, 10-Qs, 8-Ks and niche industry sources automatically, then reconcile what’s actually contracted versus what’s still just “talk”.

Let’s unpack what’s really going on under the hood — and what has to go right for LEU to justify, or exceed, today’s valuation.

Centrus Energy: What Kind of Business Are You Actually Buying?

Centrus is not a traditional uranium miner, and it’s not yet a scaled Western enricher like Urenco or Orano. It’s a hybrid:

• A marketer of low-enriched uranium (LEU) under long-term supply contracts
• A transition operator still tied to Russian TENEX flows
• A development-stage domestic enrichment platform built around its American Centrifuge technology and DOE-linked programs

According to the 10-K (2026), Centrus’ LEU segment underpins most current revenue via long-term sales, while the American Centrifuge and HALEU work position it for future domestic capacity.

Recent momentum is real:

• It delivered 900 kg of HALEU UF6 to DOE by June 30, 2025, completing Phase II and proving it can move beyond “plans on paper” into actual production, as disclosed in Centrus IR, Q2 2025 release.
• For 2025 it reported:
• Revenue of $448.7M
• Gross profit of $117.5M
• Net income of $77.8M
• Total backlog of $3.8B to 2040, including about $2.9B of LEU backlog

All of this is documented in the February 10, 2026 earnings release.

At first glance, that backlog looks like a long runway of contracted earnings. But one line in that same release changes the picture: roughly $2.3B of the LEU backlog is contingent on securing substantial investment. In other words, a huge chunk of headline demand is conditional on Centrus and its partners actually funding and building the capacity needed to deliver.

That is the crux of the investment debate: are you buying bankable revenue, or are you paying a premium for optionality?

Is LEU Stock a Buy in 2026, or Is It Priced for Perfection?

From our vantage point, LEU at ~$197 is priced much closer to the bull case than to the base or bear.

The company’s own scenario work (summarized in our one-pager) effectively implies:

• Base case (50% probability): value around $210
• Bear case (30%): value around $140
• Bull case (20%): value around $260

That is not a margin-of-safety setup. With a current rating of “WAIT,” we see a more attractive risk/reward near $160, with trimming warranted above $240.

Valuation metrics reinforce this:

• P/E: ~47x (FMP)
• EV/EBITDA: ~26.8x
• Market cap: about $3.8B

Those multiples would be rich for a fully de-risked, utility-like fuel supplier. For a company whose future earnings depend heavily on:

• Federal contracting negotiations
• Policy stability
• Large, multi-year capex for enrichment capacity and manufacturing
• Converting contingent backlog into firm offtake

…they leave very little room for disappointment.

Yes, the balance sheet is a positive outlier. Centrus reported unrestricted cash of roughly $2.0B and net debt of -$743.5M as of December 31, 2025 in the 2025 earnings release. That cash pile buys time and avoids forced dilution — a genuine margin of safety on solvency.

But it is not a margin of safety on valuation. At this price, the market is largely assuming:

• The DOE HALEU award gets definitized in a way that materially benefits Centrus
• Piketon’s build-out moves swiftly into construction
• Financing and offtake line up so that the $2.3B contingent backlog becomes “real”

Our view: the risk/reward improves if you let those steps play out rather than paying for them now.

Backlog Quality: Why $3.8B Isn’t the Same as $3.8B of Cash Flow

Investors love to anchor on backlog size. A $3.8B backlog to 2040, with $2.9B from LEU, sounds impressive. But the composition and conditions matter far more than the headline number.

From the February 10, 2026 press release and the 10-K (2026):

• About $2.3B of LEU contracts and commitments are explicitly contingent on substantial investment.
• The company emphasizes visibility on 2025–2030 LEU revenue, which supported releasing $10.2M of federal valuation allowance in 3Q 2025.
• Yet it still carries a sizeable valuation allowance of $355.4M against deferred tax assets, even with $636.6M of federal NOLs, and the auditor has flagged this as a Critical Audit Matter.

Here’s how we read that:

1. Contract visibility is real but uneven.

For the next few years, Centrus has a meaningful base of long-term contracts in the LEU segment that should generate revenue. Those contracts helped justify a partial release of the allowance.

2. Beyond that, a lot of the “backlog” is really “if you build it, we will buy.”

Contingent commitments hinge on Centrus and the system actually funding and building capacity. In a capital-intensive, policy-heavy industry, that is not a trivial if.

3. Earnings quality remains a live question.

The persistent valuation allowance and auditor scrutiny signal that management’s expectations for taxable income over the long run are still uncertain enough that auditors won’t sign off on recognizing those tax assets. That means future earnings could swing materially if allowances are adjusted — a classic source of non-operational volatility.

For long-term investors, the takeaway is not “avoid anything with contingent backlog.” It’s size the position as a high-dispersion, execution-and-policy trade, not a bond-like annuity.

This is where workflow really matters. Mapping contingent vs. non-contingent contracts across filings can take hours per name. Read our AI-powered value investing guide if you want to see how tools like DeepValue can systematize that kind of deep-dive without blowing up your week.

The HALEU Award: From “Selected” to Obligated — Or Not

The most important single line in Centrus’ current story is this: it has been “selected” for a $900M HALEU production award, subject to negotiation, as disclosed in the February 10, 2026 release.

At present:

• The award is not yet definitized
• No obligated value with detailed schedules exists
• The market is already pricing in rapid progress

Our thesis hinges on how this evolves by late 2026:

Bullish de-risking path:

• DOE definitizes and obligates a substantial portion of the $900M (we flag ≥$600M as meaningful) by 3Q 2026.
• Scope and timelines are clearly articulated, enabling Centrus to align financing, offtake and construction planning.

Bearish path:

• Negotiations stall, award remains in “selected” limbo through most or all of 2026.
• LEU continues to trade largely on contingent commitments rather than contracted growth cash flows.

Our “WAIT” call explicitly improves if we see decisive movement here. Conversely, it weakens if we get to late Q3 2026 with no real contract in place. That is why one of our formal checkpoints is:

• If by August 31, 2026 there is still no obligated HALEU value/schedule and no clear construction-package path, we’d rather exit/avoid than assume the market will stay patient.

For investors, the practical guidance is straightforward: track every DOE and Centrus update on this award and read the fine print. Is value obligated? Are timelines and deliverables explicit? Or is the language still “framework” and “subject to…”?

Piketon and the Fluor Partnership: Execution or Just Engineering?

The second leg of the growth story is scaling domestic enrichment at Piketon, Ohio, with Fluor as the integrated EPC (engineering, procurement, construction) partner. Fluor’s selection was announced on February 11, 2026 in Fluor’s press release.

This matters because:

• Utilities and financiers care deeply about who is building and how.
• A credible EPC partner with clear scope reduces execution risk and can help unlock both debt and equity financing.

But the key gating item is not just “Fluor is involved.” It’s when we see a 2026 “certified-for-construction” package:

• That package would crystallize scope, timelines and capex more concretely.
• It would tell the market that Centrus is moving from PowerPoint to physical build-out.

Our own scenario work treats:

• No certified-for-construction package by year-end 2026 as a thesis-breaker for the fast-scarcity story. The market would likely need to re-rate the stock from an “industrialization underway” narrative back to a more speculative optionality frame.

In other words, watch not only the HALEU contract but also what specific work packages Fluor and Centrus push into the market, and when.

For investors evaluating a whole basket of complex capex stories, this is where automated doc-parsing really pays off.

Russian Supply, DOE Waivers, and Earnings Whiplash

Centrus’ present-tense business still leans on legacy and transitional flows from Russia’s TENEX, governed by a long-standing Enriched Product Transitional Supply Contract. The 10-Q (2025) references a 2025 Letter Agreement amending that contract.

A few key facts:

• The U.S. Department of Energy granted a waiver allowing Russian-sourced LEU imports through 2027, as reported by Investing.com in August 2025.
• On the Q4 2025 earnings call, management pointed to a delayed Russian shipment sliding into 2026 as a driver of quarterly volatility, per the Motley Fool transcript, Feb 11, 2026.
• The 10-K explicitly notes that customer-requested delivery deferrals can shift revenue recognition timing in the LEU segment.

This creates a specific risk profile:

1. Policy-path dependence:

The DOE waiver is a bridge. If that posture tightens earlier than expected (before substantial domestic capacity is available), Centrus faces heightened shipment risk and potential margin volatility. That’s why we track DOE communications and SEC filings for any change in import allowances or contract terms.

2. Timing vs. demand:

Recent quarters show that revenue and free cash flow can swing significantly based on shipping logistics, not underlying structural demand. The -$58M free cash flow in Q4 2025 cited in the February 10, 2026 release is a good reminder: strategic tailwinds do not immunize you from near-term noise.

3. Narrative fragility:

Market coverage from outlets like Yahoo Finance shows that LEU can experience sharp drawdowns after earnings misses, even when the long-term story remains intact. That creates opportunities for traders but is painful for over-sized, long-only positions.

We don’t see this transitional risk as fatal to the long-term thesis. But we do think investors should be explicit: you are signing up for quarterly volatility — both operational and accounting-driven — while the company tries to bridge from Russian-linked flows to fully domestic enrichment.

Long-Term Roadmap: 2029 Deployment vs. a 2028 Ban

A lot of bullish commentary on LEU leans on the idea of an enrichment crunch as we approach the expected 2028 U.S. ban on Russian enriched uranium, covered extensively in the Financial Times, Feb 2026 and Wall Street Journal, Feb 2026.

Centrus is clearly aiming to be part of the solution. Its long-term roadmap includes:

• Expanding the Oak Ridge centrifuge manufacturing plant in Tennessee, with over $560M of planned investment and ~430 jobs, to support large-scale deployment. The company targets the first Tennessee-made centrifuges being operational in Ohio by 2029, according to the January 23, 2026 press release.
• Converting its 2025–2030 contract visibility into post-2030 offtake, per the 10-K (2026).
• Reducing the $355.4M valuation allowance over time through sustained taxable income, which would signal higher earnings quality.

We like that roadmap as a strategic blueprint. But note the timing mismatch:

• Policy and utility anxiety are focused on 2026–2028.
• Centrus’ manufacturing scale-up and new centrifuge deployment are more geared toward 2029 and beyond.

That doesn’t make the story uninvestable. It just means the current “scarcity trade” is leaning heavily on tightening markets before Centrus can fully deliver new Western capacity. LEU’s share price can move a lot on sentiment about the future, but actual earnings power will lag.

For long-term allocators, the question becomes: do you want to pay a premium now for capacity that will largely arrive after the first crunch, or wait for a better entry when the market refocuses on execution risk over pure narrative?

Will Centrus Deliver Sustainable Growth — or Just Trade Like a Thematic Proxy?

Based on everything we’ve seen, Centrus absolutely has the ingredients to become a durable player in the post-Russia fuel cycle:

• Demonstrated HALEU production via the 900 kg delivery to DOE
• Deep DOE contracting pathways, including options and modifications disclosed in the 10-Q (2025)
• A strong balance sheet with substantial net cash
• A credible EPC partner in Fluor for Piketon expansion
• Growing policy tailwinds to re-shore enrichment capacity

But sustainable, compounding growth requires more than structural tailwinds. Our framework focuses on three conversion steps:

1. Policy and selection → obligated awards

• Watch the $900M HALEU award, DOE options, and any new modifications.
• Look for real obligated value with schedules, not just “framework” language.

2. Awards → financed construction

• Track 8-Ks, Fluor updates and Piketon disclosures for evidence of:
• Long-lead procurement
• Construction packages
• Commissioning plans
• Oak Ridge capex must be sequenced in a way that lines up with HALEU and LEU offtake — not just “build it and hope.”

3. Construction → stable, tax-paying earnings

• Monitor changes in the valuation allowance in the 10-K (2026) and future filings.
• Persistent large allowances and CAMs around taxable income mean accounting-driven earnings swings can dominate headlines until the business matures.

Our bottom line: Centrus can absolutely deliver long-term growth if it walks this path successfully. But at today’s price, the market is giving it substantial credit for steps that are not yet executed.

For now, we think LEU trades more like a thematic proxy for “U.S. enrichment scarcity” than like a boring, cash-flowing utility. That has trading value — but it’s not the way we like to underwrite large, long-duration positions.

How We’d Actually Trade and Monitor LEU

Putting this together, here’s how our team is treating LEU in portfolios:

• Rating: WAIT
• Attractive entry: ~$160
• Trim zone: above ~$240
• Re-assessment window: 6–12 months, keyed to HALEU definitization and Piketon construction milestones

We’re comfortable with measured, sized-down exposure for investors who:

• Understand the execution and policy risks
• Are prepared for earnings volatility and sentiment air pockets
• Intend to trade around milestones rather than hold blindly for a decade

But we’re not comfortable recommending LEU as a core position at current levels until we see:

1. Meaningful obligation of the HALEU award value by late Q3 2026.

2. At least one certified-for-construction package at Piketon in 2026 with clear scope.

3. A pattern of reduced earnings whiplash from tax allowance adjustments and shipping deferrals in the next 2–3 quarters.

If those boxes start to get checked, we’d be more willing to treat LEU as a potential buy rather than an expensive option on execution.

And if we get to late 2026 without progress on HALEU definitization or Piketon construction authorization, we’d rather step aside than argue with reality while the stock prices in best-case outcomes.

For investors who want to apply this kind of milestone-driven discipline across dozens of names — enriched uranium, LNG, data centers, semicap, you name it — manual deep dives will break your calendar.

Sources

• 10-K (2026)
• 10-Q (2025)
• 8-K (2026)
• DEF 14A (2025)
• Centrus Q4 2025 and FY2025 earnings release, Feb 10 2026
• Centrus Q2 2025 results and HALEU update, Aug 5 2025
• Centrus Oak Ridge expansion announcement, Jan 23 2026
• Fluor EPC partnership announcement for Piketon, Feb 11 2026
• Centrus Q4 2025 earnings call transcript, Motley Fool, Feb 11 2026
• Financial Times coverage of U.S. enrichment and Russian ban, Feb 2026
• Wall Street Journal on uranium supply squeeze, Feb 2026
• Investing.com on DOE waiver for Russian imports, Aug 2025
• Barron's on U.S.–Korean nuclear agreements, Aug 2025
• Investing.com, Centrus manufacturing ramp news, Dec 2025
• Investing.com, Oak Ridge expansion coverage, Jan 2026
• Yahoo Finance, LEU drawdown after earnings, Feb 2026
• Yahoo Finance, cost improvements, Sep 2025
• Investor's Business Daily, RS rating and momentum, Feb 2026