B2Gold Corp. (BTG) Deep Research Report: Can a Tough Transition Year Set Up Stronger Returns by 2027?

B2Gold Corp. (BTG) is heading into 2026 with a label nobody loves: a “transition year.” Production is guided down, costs are guided up, and a lot rests on projects that are still in motion rather than fully proven.

We think that’s exactly why the setup is interesting.

At around $5.74 per share, our work suggests BTG offers a catalyst-heavy, execution‑driven opportunity. The next 6–9 months should resolve several big questions around the Goose mine ramp‑up, the timing of Fekola Regional permits in Mali, and whether management can sustain dividends and buybacks during a CEO transition. According to the company’s February 18, 2026 guidance release, those milestones are now dated and testable rather than vague promises.

From our perspective, that kind of binary, time‑bound setup is exactly where disciplined value investors can earn a research edge. The trick is separating temporary “bridge year” pain from genuine deterioration in asset quality or balance sheet resilience.

Below, we walk through how we’re framing BTG’s risk/reward, what the market is assuming, and how we’d monitor the position over the next year.

B2Gold in 2026: A Bridge Year, Not a Broken Story

B2Gold is a Vancouver‑based gold producer with its core cash engine at the Fekola Complex in Mali and a newer growth asset at the Goose mine in Canada’s high north. As the company itself highlights in its 2026 guidance release, 2025 was a record revenue year, but 2026 will look worse on almost every headline metric:

• Consolidated production guidance: 820k–970k oz
• Consolidated AISC guidance: $2,400–$2,580/oz sold

Those ranges bake in two big drags:

1. Heavy deferred stripping at Fekola – roughly $137 million of deferred stripping inside about $280 million of 2026 Fekola Complex capex.

2. A partial ramp year at Goose – where throughput is constrained by crushing and run‑of‑mine (ROM) feed bottlenecks.

Management has been explicit that 2026 is cost‑heavy by design, with the goal of stabilizing the mine plan and positioning for better years beyond. Our thesis lives or dies on whether those investments actually de‑risk the future rather than just burning cash.

What is the market pricing in?

At today’s price, we think the market is effectively saying:

• “We don’t fully trust the 2H 2026 ramp narrative at Goose.”
• “We’re not confident Mali permitting for Fekola Regional lands on time.”
• “We’re unsure if leadership transition and capital returns can coexist with higher capex and operating risk.”

Our base‑case valuation work (summarized in the internal scenario table underlying this report) centers on a fair value around $6.60, with upside to roughly $8.20 in a bull case and downside to about $4.50 in a bear case. The DT math is less important than the drivers:

• Base case: Goose stabilizes around 3,200 tonnes per day (tpd) after initial fixes, Fekola Regional comes online in 2H 2026, consolidated production lands mid‑guidance, and AISC trends around $2,490/oz.
• Bear case: Fekola Regional permit slips, Goose remains dependent on a mobile crusher longer than expected, and 2026 production/cost outcomes skew toward the weak end of guidance.
• Bull case: Fekola Regional permit lands in Q1, pre‑stripping stays on schedule, Fekola Regional contributes 60k–80k oz in 2026, and consolidated AISC trends closer to $2,400/oz.

We’re not counting on a big multiple re‑rating; we’re counting on the company earning back trust through execution against very specific milestones.

Is BTG Stock a Buy in 2026?

We currently frame BTG as a POTENTIAL BUY, not a “back up the truck” conviction idea. Our conviction score is 4.0/5, which reflects both the clarity of catalysts and the fact that they are not trivial to achieve.

Here’s how we break it down.

The upside: execution can reframe 2026 as a bridge year

If B2Gold hits the critical 2026 milestones it has set for itself, we think the narrative shifts from “down year” to “bridge year.” That matters because the market tends to pay up for visible post‑transition run‑rates.

The big “if”s:

Fekola Regional exploitation permit in Q1 2026

Management now expects this permit during Q1 2026, moving from generic “final stages” language in November 2025 to a dated commitment in February 2026, per the November 3, 2025 Fekola update and the February 18, 2026 guidance release.

The permit is the gate to:

• ~3 months of immediate pre‑stripping
• First Fekola Regional ore in 2H 2026
• A guided 60k–80k oz contribution in 2026

Goose crushing and throughput fixes

Goose’s 2026 plan assumes:

• 1.04 Mt processed
• 6.83 g/t grade
• 92.5% recovery

But the plant is struggling to reach its design 4,000 tpd rate because of crushing and ROM feed issues. According to the February 18, 2026 release, management has already:

• Ordered a ROM bin and apron feeder (late 2025), slated for installation in 2H 2026
• Initiated a comprehensive crushing‑circuit improvement study with results expected in 1H 2026

Initial modifications suggest a near‑term “floor” around 3,200 tpd; getting there and then beyond is the heart of the Goose thesis.

Capital returns and leadership continuity

Despite elevated 2026 costs, B2Gold is still:

• Paying a $0.02/share Q1 2026 dividend (payable March 19, 2026)
• Executing its normal course issuer bid (NCIB), with 7 million shares repurchased for $34 million, including 5 million for $24 million after year‑end, per the February 18, 2026 release.

A planned CEO transition will see current CFO Mike Cinnamond become CEO at the June 4, 2026 AGM, while Kelvin Dushnisky becomes Executive Chair as of February 23, 2026, per the leadership transition announcement. If capital returns are maintained through that transition and operational milestones are met, the “shareholder yield + execution” narrative looks much stronger.

The downside: two clear ways the thesis can break

We always ask ourselves what has to go wrong to permanently impair capital, not just knock the stock around for a quarter or two. For BTG, the combination that really worries us is:

1. Mali permitting failure or material delay

If the Fekola Regional exploitation permit is not in hand by March 31, 2026, and the company cannot offer a credible, dated replacement timeline with specifics on government process, our 2H 2026 offset thesis breaks. That would mean:

• Fekola facing its Phase 8 transition without the planned Fekola Regional supplement
• Higher risk that 2026 production drifts toward the low end of the 410k–460k oz Fekola guidance
• AISC pressure that doesn’t ease as quickly as investors hope

2. Goose fixes slipping or under‑delivering

If by June 30, 2026 B2Gold has not:

• Published the Goose crushing‑circuit study results (scope, timing, and capex), and
• Moved convincingly toward installing the ROM bin and apron feeder in 2H 2026,

then the Goose “fix” story loses credibility. Continued dependence on the mobile crusher, which the company notes can be disrupted by extreme cold in the February 2026 guidance release, would likely keep Goose AISC in the high guided range of $2,670–$2,970/oz sold and make production guidance (170k–230k oz) harder to hit.

If those two problems stack on top of each other, and capital returns continue without adjustment, liquidity stops being a margin of safety and starts being the limiting factor.

Will B2Gold Deliver Long-Term Growth?

Looking beyond this messy 2026, we’re focused on whether B2Gold can exit the bridge year with a healthier, more scalable platform. The roadmap the company has laid out contains three important pillars.

1. Normalizing Fekola’s cost profile

As the company stresses in its 2026 guidance, 2026 Fekola Complex capex includes about $137 million of deferred stripping out of roughly $280 million total capex. That’s a big drag on near‑term free cash flow, but if it stabilizes the mine plan and reduces future stripping intensity, it can set up a better cost profile from 2027 onward.

We want to see, over the next 12–24 months:

• Capex and deferred stripping staying roughly in line with the $280m / $137m framework, unless higher spend is clearly linked to better economics.
• Production and mined tonnes tracking expectations through the Phase 8 transition, with consistent commentary in quarterly updates.

The bigger structural headwind at Fekola is fiscal take. At a budgeted $5,000/oz realized gold price for 2026, B2Gold expects roughly $410 million of royalties and production taxes, or about $910/oz sold, and estimates AISC moves roughly $23/oz for every $100/oz move in the gold price. This is all laid out in the February 18, 2026 release.

That means Fekola will never have the same operating leverage as a high‑grade mine in a low‑take jurisdiction, but it can still be a powerful cash engine if volumes and costs are predictable.

2. Getting Goose to design throughput

The Goose mine is meant to be a cornerstone asset, not a perpetual problem child. Design capacity is 4,000 tpd, but the near‑term reality is closer to 3,200 tpd after initial modifications, per the Goose update embedded in the 2026 guidance.

The company’s plan is:

• 1H 2026 – Complete the comprehensive crushing‑circuit study, defining:
• Scope of modifications
• Timing and downtime implications
• Required capex
• 2H 2026 – Install the ROM bin and apron feeder already ordered in late 2025, so the mobile crusher is no longer required full‑time.
• Post‑2026 – Potentially execute broader crushing‑circuit upgrades to get closer to 4,000 tpd average.

We’ll be watching quarterly throughput at Goose versus the implied 2026 plan of 1.04 Mt processed at 6.83 g/t and 92.5% recovery. Persistent shortfalls or continued mentions of cold‑weather disruptions to the mobile crusher would be red flags.

3. Sustaining capital returns through and after the CEO transition

One of BTG’s underappreciated strengths is its willingness to return capital even while funding a heavy investment year. As of December 31, 2025, the company reported:

• $380 million in cash
• $650 million available under its revolver at year-end
• And after year‑end, a $100 million repayment, leaving $750 million of revolver capacity, per the February 18, 2026 guidance release.

That liquidity underwrites:

• The 2026 Goose remediation and ramp
• The heavy Fekola stripping program
• Ongoing dividends and buybacks, at least for now

The key tests we’re setting for ourselves:

• April 2, 2026 – The current NCIB authorization expires, per the March 24, 2025 NCIB announcement.
• If BTG renews or replaces it, that’s a strong signal of capital return continuity.
• If it quietly lets it lapse without a clear rationale or alternative, we’d mark that as a negative signal on shareholder yield.

• June 4, 2026 AGM – CEO transition from Clive Johnson to Mike Cinnamond, as outlined in the February 23, 2026 leadership transition press release.
• We’re looking for confirmation in the first two quarters under the new CEO that dividend and buyback philosophy hasn’t changed materially.

If operational milestones progress and capital returns remain active, we’d be inclined to add on weakness into late 2026 as the “bridge” narrative solidifies.

Margin of Safety: Liquidity Buffer, Not Low Costs

Unlike classic value setups where the margin of safety comes from being the low‑cost producer, B2Gold’s 2026 protection comes from a strong balance sheet and funding capacity.

According to the February 18, 2026 guidance release:

• Cash: $380 million at year‑end 2025
• Revolver availability: $650 million at year‑end, $750 million after a $100 million repayment in early 2026

That gives BTG substantial runway to:

• Fund Goose capex and remediation
• Absorb high stripping at Fekola
• Maintain at least some level of capital returns

One nuance we flag for investors: “headline” working capital looks weaker than the underlying picture because gold prepayment obligations are classified as current liabilities. That makes simple current ratio screens misleading. The real cushion is in revolver capacity and the cash machine at Fekola, not in the current‑asset/current‑liability snapshot.

From a risk‑management perspective, this means:

• We’re less worried about near‑term dilution from equity raises, as long as execution stays within the existing capex and guidance framework.
• We’re more focused on project slippage that might lengthen the capex‑heavy period or depress cash flow beyond 2026, which could chip away at the buffer.

Market Sentiment: A Crowded “Transition Year” Debate

Recent coverage has converged around a few common themes:

• 2025 was a record year, but 2026 guidance is weaker on both production and costs.
• Goose’s ramp and Fekola Regional’s permit timing are the swing factors.
• Capital returns and the CEO transition add a governance overlay.

The company itself emphasizes in its February 18, 2026 guidance release that:

• Production is weighted to 2H 2026, heightening calendar‑phasing risk.
• AISC will be elevated, partly due to fiscal take at higher gold prices.
• Goose’s mobile crusher and cold‑weather exposure have already impacted results.

Third‑party commentary, such as the MarketBeat February 2026 earnings coverage, echoes those concerns and amplifies the focus on:

• Goose throughput constraints and the limits of temporary solutions.
• Sensitivity of investor sentiment to early‑year under‑delivery versus 2H 2026 promises.

We’d describe sentiment as balanced but jumpy:

• Bulls lean on the 2027 run‑rate story and BTG’s history of operational delivery.
• Bears lean on Mali risk, Goose execution complexity, and 2026 cost optics.

That mix is actually helpful for a data‑driven investor: the stock is not a one‑way consensus, and each dated milestone has the potential to move expectations meaningfully in either direction.

How We’d Actively Monitor a BTG Position

With a name like this, passive “buy and forget” makes little sense. We’d structure our BTG exposure around pre‑defined checkpoints and thesis breakers.

Hard “thesis breaker” dates

We’ve set three bright‑line triggers:

1. March 31, 2026 – Fekola Regional permit

• If the exploitation permit is not received by this date and management does not provide a new, dated approval window with explicit status, we’d cut or exit the position. That’s because the permit is the keystone for the “permit → ~3‑month pre‑strip → 2H 2026 production” chain, per the February 18, 2026 guidance release.

2. June 30, 2026 – Goose comprehensive crushing plan

• If B2Gold has not published the 1H 2026 Goose study (with scope, timing, and capex) by this date, we’d reduce exposure. A missing or endlessly delayed fix plan would suggest management is struggling more than guidance implies.

3. Post‑AGM 2026 – Capital returns through CEO transition

• If the April 2, 2026 NCIB expiry passes with no renewal or alternative capital return framework, and the June 4, 2026 CEO transition is accompanied by hints of reduced dividend intent, we’d re‑rate the name as higher‑risk and likely shrink the position. The NCIB authorization and leadership plan set very clear markers for this.

90‑day and 180‑day checkpoints

Beyond the hard thesis breakers, we’d run structured check‑ins:

By May 25, 2026 (90 days from the February 23, 2026 6‑K)

• If the Fekola Regional permit is still not in hand and there’s no revised, dated timeline, we’d downgrade conviction and likely trim.
• If the NCIB renewal hasn’t been addressed after the April 2 expiry, we’d demand clarity around the AGM.
• If Goose throughput isn’t tracking toward the implied 1.04 Mt 2026 plan, we’d avoid adding and wait for the study.

By August 22, 2026 (180 days)

• If Goose’s comprehensive plan is still undefined or the ROM bin/apron feeder timeline has slipped beyond “2H 2026,” we’d seriously consider exiting; at that point, the story no longer matches the 2H‑weighted valuation support.
• If, after the permit, B2Gold has not clearly progressed through the “immediate” pre‑strip at Fekola, we’d cut our probability that Fekola Regional contributes meaningfully in 2026.
• Conversely, if Goose is tracking, the permit is in hand with pre‑strip underway, and capital returns are active post‑transition, we’d consider increasing exposure.

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Management Quality and Governance: Adaptive, But Now Under the Microscope

We give B2Gold management credit for updating expectations rather than clinging to old narratives.

• In November 2025, the company told investors Fekola operations were uninterrupted and permits/licenses were in good standing, describing the Fekola Regional exploitation permit as in “final stages,” per the November 3, 2025 press release.
• By February 2026, they tightened that to an explicit expectation of Q1 2026 receipt, per the guidance release.

We see that as a positive: it creates an objective scorecard rather than an open‑ended “soon.”

On governance, the February 23, 2026 6‑K and attached leadership press release make the planned CEO transition very clear:

• Clive Johnson retires at the June 4, 2026 AGM.
• CFO Mike Cinnamond steps up as President and CEO effective that date.
• Kelvin Dushnisky becomes Executive Chair immediately, with a named Lead Independent Director.

Our read: this is designed as a continuity transition, not a regime change. But we still treat it as a risk: the first two or three capital allocation decisions under the new CEO will send a strong signal about whether BTG remains a “returns + growth” story or shifts to a more conservative stance.

The latest Form 6‑K filed February 23, 2026 itself is light on operational detail; it primarily indexes the leadership press release as Exhibit 99.1. That’s why we lean heavily on the February 18 guidance release for operational and financial metrics.

How We’d Position BTG in a Portfolio

Pulling everything together, here’s how we’d use BTG within a diversified portfolio:

• Position sizing: We’d treat this as a medium‑sized, catalyst‑driven position, not a core forever‑hold. The binary nature of permits, project fixes, and sovereign risk in Mali argues against oversized exposure.
• Entry range: Our one‑pager framework flags $5.30 as an “attractive entry” region and $7.50 as a “trim above” zone. At $5.74, BTG sits between those markers, which for us is compatible with building a position gradually, with a bias to add on weakness near or below the attractive entry level if milestones are on track.
• Time horizon: We see this as a 3–6 month reassessment window with optionality beyond 12–24 months if 2026 executes to plan. Our base case is that the stock earns a better narrative by late 2026, which can support mid‑single‑digit percentage upside in fair value and limit downside if catalysts hit.
• Risk control: We’d explicitly tie risk management to:
• The March 31 permit deadline
• The June 30 Goose‑study deadline
• The April 2 NCIB and June 4 CEO transitions

These aren’t soft “we’ll see” markers; they are the backbone of our exit/resize decisions.

For investors willing to do that kind of structured monitoring, we think BTG offers a reasonable skew: the base and bull cases are both credible, and the bear path is visible early if key milestones slip.

Sources

• B2Gold Reports Q4 and Full Year 2025 Results & 2026 Guidance (Feb 18, 2026)
• B2Gold Announces Leadership Transition (Feb 23, 2026)
• B2Gold Announces TSX Approval for Normal Course Issuer Bid (Mar 24, 2025)
• B2Gold’s Operations at the Fekola Complex in Mali Continue Unimpeded (Nov 3, 2025)
• B2Gold Provides an Update on Goose Mine Commissioning (Sep 2025)
• MINING.COM – B2Gold open to M&As but not until 2026 (Sep 2025)
• MarketBeat – B2Gold Corp. Earnings Coverage (Feb 2026)
• SEC Form 6‑K (Feb 23, 2026) – B2Gold Corp.