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Angi Inc. is one of those names most homeowners know but many investors now hesitate on. After years of restructuring, portfolio simplification, and a big strategic pivot toward proprietary leads and AI-driven efficiencies, the stock looks optically cheap on earnings and cash flow multiples. Yet the underlying business is still shrinking on the top line, and the pro network that powers the marketplace is smaller than it was a few years ago.

From our deep dive, we think Angi sits squarely in “prove-it” territory. The company has made real progress on profitability, customer satisfaction, and unit economics, but the path from here to a clean, durable growth story by 2026 is narrow. Our current stance is a WAIT: we want to see clear evidence of total revenue stabilization and sustained free cash flow strength before getting constructive.

If you cover a lot of these complex, restructuring-heavy names, you know how time-consuming it is to piece this together from 10-Ks, 10-Qs, earnings calls, and obscure industry sources. This article is a snapshot of what our own research pipeline surfaced on Angi, but we routinely use tools like DeepValue to compress that multi-hour process into minutes.

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Before we get into valuation and scenarios, let’s ground the discussion in what Angi actually is today and what the market is assuming about tomorrow.

Angi’s Evolving Business: From Angie’s List to AI-First Marketplace

Angi runs two-sided marketplaces (Angi, HomeAdvisor, Handy) that connect homeowners with vetted home-service professionals across more than 500 categories, primarily in the US, with additional presence in Canada and parts of Europe. The business has evolved from Angie’s List’s old subscription review model into a pay-per-lead and services marketplace following its merger with HomeAdvisor and subsequent resegmentations.

According to the 10-K (2025), Angi facilitated around 17 million projects in 2024, and roughly 16 million over the twelve months to Q3 2025, but those volumes are trending down. Service Requests declined from 23.3 million to 17.2 million in 2024, Monetized Transactions fell from 27.1 million to 24.4 million, and Average Monthly Active Pros dropped from 152,000 to 118,000 by Q3 2025.

At the same time, Angi is pushing a set of “big bets”:

Shift demand away from lower-quality third-party network affiliates toward proprietary channels, while raising revenue per lead
Roll out an “AI-first” operating model to automate workflows and cut headcount
Reinvest savings into brand marketing (notably, roughly doubling TV spend in 2026) and continued $50–60 million annual software CapEx

Management’s stated goal is to return to mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2026, with “a little” EBITDA leverage.

So we have a business that:

Is structurally high-margin at the unit level (95% gross margin)
Has cut enough costs to be GAAP profitable
But is still shrinking in aggregate revenue, with a shrinking pro base

That tension sits at the heart of the Angi investment case.

What Do Angi’s Financials Look Like Today?

Revenue mix and profitability

Angi monetizes the marketplace primarily via:

Pay-per-lead fees charged to pros
Display and transactional advertising
Memberships
Net fees on pre-priced “Services” jobs

In Q3 2025, lead services contributed $183.3 million of $265.6 million in total revenue, with advertising at $57.8 million, services $17.2 million, memberships $6.9 million, and other $0.4 million, per the Q3 2025 10-Q (2025), p.3–5. Revenue per lead is rising double-digits as Angi consolidates its salesforce and mixes away from discounted/low-quality pros.

Despite that mix, Q3 2025 revenue fell 10% year over year to $265.6 million, driven largely by an intentional collapse in low-margin Network Service Requests (down 67%) and Network Leads (down 81%) as Angi rolled out its “homeowner choice” product and pulled back from affiliates. Domestic nine-month 2025 revenue was down 15% year over year (from $816.9 million to $691.3 million) according to the 10-Q (2025), p.20–22.

On the profit side, the story looks better:

Operating income in Q3 2025 rose 179% to $21.8 million
Adjusted EBITDA grew 12% to $39.7 million
GAAP net income actually declined 70% to $10.6 million due to a normalized effective tax rate, as summarized by MarketScreener’s Q3 2025 coverage

For 2024 as a whole, Angi delivered $36.0 million of net earnings on $1.19 billion of revenue, returning to GAAP profitability after years of losses per the 10-K (2025), p.1.

The top line is clearly under pressure, but cost discipline has rescued the P&L – at least for now.

Cash flow, leverage, and buybacks

Where things get more nuanced for value investors is cash and leverage.

Our report notes that Angi generated around $105.5 million of free cash flow in 2024, with positive free cash flow across the 2025 quarters in aggregate, according to TipRanks cash-flow data (Dec 2025). For the first nine months of 2025:

Cash from operations: $75.0 million
CapEx: $40.8 million, mostly capitalized software
Share repurchases: 6.7 million shares for roughly $102.7 million at an average price of $15.31

Those figures are pulled from the 10-Q (2025), p.5–7.

On the balance sheet, Angi carries:

About $500 million of 3.875% Senior Notes due 2028
Net debt around $93 million
Net debt / EBITDA of 0.72x and interest coverage of 3.76x, per our compiled metrics

At a market cap of about $560 million, Angi trades at a P/E of 16.9x, EV/EBITDA of 5.56x, and 0.6x book. Those multiples, alongside 95% gross margins and positive free cash flow, provide some valuation support. But this is not a balance sheet fortress: the 2028 maturity is meaningful, and the asset base is largely intangible.

Add to that more than $130 million of buybacks across 2024–2025 while revenue and marketplace breadth were compressing, and the leverage to execution risk per share has increased.

How Strong Is Angi’s Margin of Safety?

From a pure multiples and cash generation perspective, Angi looks like a typical “cheap turnaround”: mid-single-digit EV/EBITDA, modest leverage, and positive free cash flow. The question is whether that cash flow is durable enough to cover:

$50–60 million of software CapEx per year
A planned step-up in TV advertising in 2026
Potential refinancing or partial paydown of the 2028 notes

Our margin-of-safety assessment is cautious. The downside buffer rests on:

The durability of 95% gross margins in lead-based economics
The ability to keep generating at least $70–100 million of annual free cash flow while still investing in product and brand

If Angi fails to return to positive total revenue growth by 2026 while maintaining heavy marketing and CapEx, free cash flow could compress sharply. That scenario would likely force a slowdown in buybacks and raise concerns about refinancing terms on the notes, as flagged in management commentary and external analysis cited by TipRanks (Dec 2025).

We also note a more subtle risk: goodwill and intangible headroom, especially within Services, is limited. The Services unit reportedly has only about $20 million of cushion before triggering impairments, per the qualitative detail summarized from GuruFocus’s Q3 2025 call coverage. A goodwill write-down wouldn’t directly hit cash flows, but it would be a clear signal that management’s long-term cash assumptions were too optimistic and that the market should reset terminal value lower.

For us, that means:

Capital impairment risk jumps if free cash flow materially weakens into the 2028 window.
The current price offers some cushion but not a deep value floor.

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What Is the Market Pricing In for ANGI Stock?

Sentiment and consensus narrative

Most public commentary now frames Angi as a cost-cutting, efficiency-driven turnaround rather than a growth story. Outlets like GuruFocus’s Q3 2025 earnings recap and TipRanks’ earnings summaries describe a company that can grow EPS despite shrinking revenue, mainly via AI-linked efficiencies and overhead cuts.

Analyst ratings skew Hold/neutral, with price targets generally implying decent upside but with “heightened execution risk” after Q3 2025 EPS and revenue misses, as highlighted by Nasdaq/Zacks’ Q3 coverage and MarketBeat’s consensus rating summary.

We see a clear shift in tone over 2025:

Mid-2025: Coverage framed Angi as a “turnaround gaining traction” after Q2 revenue beats and stock pops, per Nasdaq/The Motley Fool’s August 2025 article and StockStory’s recap.
Late 2025 / Early 2026: Focus shifted to Q3 earnings misses, sharp year-over-year profit compression, layoffs, and AI-driven cost cuts, as documented by GuruFocus’ Q3 2025 write-up and Business Insider’s January 2026 piece on 350 job cuts.

This shift matters because it tells us what the “consensus playbook” is: own Angi for margin expansion and cost-efficiency, not for top-line growth.

Market-implied assumptions

From the collection of analyst pieces and price targets referenced in our report, we think the market is broadly assuming that over the next 12–24 months:

Revenue declines slow and turn into low-single-digit growth by 2026, supported by proprietary service-request growth and higher revenue per lead (see Simply Wall St’s November 2025 analysis).
Margin expansion from AI-driven efficiencies, lower overhead, and restructuring offsets weak volumes and supports EPS growth (Business Insider, Jan 2026).
Analyst EPS targets are ultimately met without a dramatic de-rating in the multiple, as discussed by Tickergate’s stock forecast.
Free cash flow remains positive enough to allow some ongoing buybacks or balance-sheet “optimization” into the 2028 maturity window.

In other words, the current price already embeds a successful stabilization outcome. You are not being paid to underwrite a scenario where revenue keeps contracting mid-single-digits and free cash flow trends toward breakeven.

That’s a key reason we rate the stock a WAIT rather than a contrarian buy: the bar for upside is not low.

Is ANGI Stock a Buy in 2026?

Our base case assigns a 50% probability and implies a value around $14 per share, versus the reference price of $12.98. Under this scenario:

Revenue stabilizes in 2026 with roughly 0–3% growth
EBITDA margins expand modestly, aided by AI efficiencies and cost programs
Proprietary leads and pricing offset most of the drag from network contraction, but not enough to restart robust growth

This base case offers some upside but not the kind of asymmetry we usually look for in a high-uncertainty turnaround. More importantly, the bear and bull cases are both quite plausible:

Bear case (30% probability, implied value ~$9):

Pro network erosion continues, homeowner demand stays soft, and proprietary gains don’t fully offset.
Total revenue declines mid-single digits annually, marketing has to stay elevated to keep volumes from falling faster, and free cash flow trends toward breakeven.

Bull case (20% probability, implied value ~$18):

AI-driven matching and automation substantially lift hire rates and sales productivity without commensurate marketing spend.
Proprietary volumes grow high-single digits and EBITDA margins expand 200–300 bps on durable AI-driven efficiencies.

In our view, investors buying today are essentially betting that Angi executes somewhere between the base and bull scenarios on:

Sustaining double-digit proprietary volume growth
Keeping pro churn and NPS trending positively
Translating the January 2026 layoffs into real, recurring savings, not one-offs

The risk/reward isn’t terrible, but it isn’t compelling either, especially given the 2028 refinancing question and limited tangible asset backing. For us, that tilts the near-term stance toward patience, not aggression.

Will Angi Deliver Long-Term Growth – Or Just a Smaller, Leaner Business?

A very real risk here is that Angi successfully optimizes its way into a smaller but more profitable marketplace that never gets back to meaningful growth.

Evidence for that risk:

Multi-year declines in Service Requests, Monetized Transactions, and Transacting Pros despite better NPS and win rates (GuruFocus Q3 2025 call highlights)
A shift away from network affiliates that, while rational economically, reduces volume and breadth
Aggressive layoffs and cost cuts that increase the temptation to over-prioritize near-term Adjusted EBITDA, which management uses as a primary performance metric per the DEF 14A (2025)

On the positive side, Angi’s moat-like features are real:

95% gross margins
A large installed base of pros and homeowners
Years of transaction data informing matching, pricing, and fraud detection

According to Leadgen Economy’s industry overview (Jan 2026) and Oyelabs’ roundup of US home-services apps, Angi still has scale and brand advantages over many smaller rivals.

Yet the overall online home-services market is growing mid-teens annually, as estimated by Mordor Intelligence’s US home service market report (Jan 2026) and The Business Research Company’s global on-demand report. Against that backdrop, Angi’s declining revenue implies share loss or at least share stagnation.

For long-term growth to materialize, Angi needs to show:

Stabilization or growth in Transacting Pros and Average Monthly Active Pros
Continued proprietary volume growth as network drag subsides
Product innovation (especially AI capabilities) that keeps pace with or outpaces AI-native challengers like InstaService, which is pushing instant-booking models per Yahoo Finance’s October 2025 PR

We’re not saying this can’t happen. We’re saying the burden of proof is still on management, and the market is already assuming a fair amount of success by 2026.

Key Risks and What We’re Watching in the Next 12–18 Months

We anchor our “WAIT” rating on a concrete set of risks and checkpoints drawn from filings and external sources.

Thesis breakers

We’d likely downgrade our view further or avoid the stock entirely if:

1. Revenue fails to turn positive in 2026.

Management is targeting mid-single-digit growth; if 2026 still shows negative total revenue growth, that’s a clear sign proprietary volume and pricing aren’t enough to offset network compression.

2. Free cash flow turns structurally negative.

Two consecutive years of negative FCF in 2025–2026 while buybacks and elevated TV spend continue would raise real concern about servicing or refinancing the 2028 notes without equity dilution or punitive terms, a risk highlighted in the TipRanks cash-flow series (Dec 2025).

3. Marketplace quality deteriorates post-layoffs.

If by late 2026 we see renewed deterioration in NPS, pro churn, and win rates, it would suggest that AI-driven cost cuts are undermining marketplace health. This risk is implicitly flagged in Business Insider’s January 2026 layoff coverage and GuruFocus’ Q3 2025 call highlights.

Near-term checkpoints (next 90–180 days)

For the next 10-Q (Q4 2025/Q1 2026 window), we’ll be asking:

Are revenue declines narrowing from Q3 2025’s -10% YoY, while proprietary requests/leads and revenue per lead continue at least mid-single-digit growth?
Do restructuring charges for the January 2026 layoffs land in the $22–30 million range, and does the operating expense run-rate clearly step down, as suggested by the 8-K (2026) and Business Insider’s report?

By mid-2026 (after Q2 2026), we want to see:

Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow holding up at or near 2024–2025 levels, even with higher TV spend
NPS, pro churn, and win rates at least stable at current improved levels, consistent with management’s commentary in GuruFocus’ Q3 2025 summary
No softening of the “mid-single-digit 2026 growth” message without a clear macro shock.

If these boxes are checked, our conviction in a durable stabilization would rise meaningfully, and a re-rating case could look more attractive.

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How We’d Approach ANGI as Value-Oriented Investors

Putting it all together, here’s how we, as the DeepValue team, frame Angi for a fundamental investor:

Rating: WAIT
Trim above: $17
Attractive entry: $10
Re-assessment window: 12–18 months

When we’d consider getting constructive

We’d become interested in building a position closer to or below $10 if, alongside that price, we saw:

Clear quantitative evidence of total revenue inflection (flat to slightly positive YoY)
Continued positive trends in proprietary requests, revenue per lead, and NPS
Trailing free cash flow comfortably covering interest and CapEx with room to de-risk the balance sheet, not just fund buybacks

At that point, the upside to even our base-case valuation would likely be more compelling relative to the downside scenarios.

When we’d stay away or reduce

Conversely, we’d be inclined to stay on the sidelines—or trim if already long—if:

Revenue is still negative YoY through 2026 and free cash flow covers less than 50% of combined interest and CapEx
Consumer marketing as a percentage of revenue drifts well above 2025 levels (e.g., above ~35%) without improving the revenue trajectory, a sign of deteriorating marketing efficiency
Competitors like InstaService, Thumbtack, or Porch start explicitly calling out share gains in categories where Angi was historically strong, as hinted in Yahoo Finance’s InstaService PR

In those worlds, Angi starts to look less like a temporarily impaired franchise and more like a structurally shrinking, levered asset-light platform – not a profile we want to own without a much deeper discount to intrinsic value.

Final Takeaways: Why Our Stance Is “Wait”

Angi’s story is not black-and-white. Management has done many things value investors like to see:

Exited non-core businesses (Roofing)
Cut more than $100 million of overhead versus 2022
Returned the company to GAAP profitability in 2024
Improved customer and pro satisfaction metrics materially

At the same time, filings such as the 10-Q (2025) force us to acknowledge:

Domestic revenue is still down mid-teens year over year
The active pro base is smaller and more concentrated
The path to mid-single-digit growth and sustained free cash flow is narrow and time-bound by a 2028 maturity wall

Our conclusion:

For patient, fundamentals-first investors, Angi is a name to monitor closely, not chase.
The next 12–18 months of quarterly data will determine whether this is a gradually de-risking turnaround or a slow-motion value trap.

If and when the data start validating a true revenue inflection with durable cash generation, we’d be happy to revisit our stance. Until then, we think capital is better deployed in situations where the downside is more clearly bounded and the upside isn’t already baked into consensus.

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